The December 30, 2022, month-end performance estimate for the Horse Cove Partners Absolute Return Strategy was up 0.89% net of fees1. Since the December 2010 inception of trading, the Strategy has achieved a total cumulative return of +246.63% net of fees.
Market Recap and Commentary
Welcome to 2023! December turned out to be a volatile month for the S&P 500, and mostly to the downside, finishing the year very close to a technical bear market. December data indicated an expanding U.S. economy and stable labor market in the face of persistently high inflation. 2022 comes in fourth in the worst years for the S&P 500, just below 2002 at -22.10. However, many investors performed far worse than the index which was supported by energy and utilities.
In addition to the poor performance, 2022 was one of the most volatile years for the S&P. Realized volatility, as measured by the standard deviation of daily returns, was 24.18%, ranking the 8th highest in the last 85 years. While the average VIX (implied volatility) for the year was higher than realized, at 25.64 (6th highest since inception in 1990), it had relatively tame responses to sharp drops in the market, reaching only 36.45 at its highest in March. It’s worth noting that this high did not coincide with market lows. We believe there are a few factors affecting the VIX and have been trading cautiously around what we believe are artificially low readings. The S&P had nine one-day declines that exceeded 3%, and two that exceeded 4%, all occurring after the VIX high on March 7th.
It would seem to us that equities have not yet fully priced in the moves that the FED has already made, so we would expect the volatility to continue regardless of whether they slow or pause tightening. Historically, the market bottoms after the FED stops or reverses its tightening cycle. After decades of loose money and artificially low rates, there is plenty of fat left on the bone.
All that being said, markets want to go up and they do go up far more often than they go down. Investors will give the benefit of the doubt/ ignore data until they can’t.
Performance and Trading Update
Our cautious trading has paid off in 2022, keeping our returns across all strategies positive for the year in the face of record volatility and massive short-term moves in the market. We will continue to trade this way until we see some sort of capitulation in equities, leaving us in a much better position to collect outsized premiums.
Horse Cove Partners Absolute Return Strategy composite was up 0.89% net of fees.
Here are the composite net returns for the Portfolio Margin accounts for the periods indicated:
Reg. T Update
Here are the composite net returns for the Reg. T accounts for the periods indicated:
IRA accounts must use Reg. T Margin which means that fewer option contracts may be written than in the “regular” accounts that use Portfolio Margin. Over time, this may also result in lower returns when compared to the “regular” accounts.
HC Enhanced Yield Update
Here are the composite net returns for the Enhanced Yield Strategy for the periods indicated:
HC Money Plus
Here are the composite gross returns for the Money Plus Strategy for the periods indicated:
About Horse Cove Partners LLC
Profiting from the art and science of taking risk. ®
Horse Cove Partners was founded by Sam DeKinder and Kevin Ellis in January of 2013 with the commitment to help grow the client’s assets with a highly disciplined investment strategy, replicated weekly, to extract absolute returns from the market by trading short volatility option spreads. The firm was launched after more than two years of trading experience with personal assets that began in December 2010. The firm is built on the strength of hedge fund trading expertise developed beginning in 2002.“We do not believe we are smarter than the market, nor can we time the market in any given week or month. As a result, we take an investment approach similar to an insurance company in that our investment strategy focuses on the probability of success and the management of risk. We believe that it is possible to realize positive returns through a disciplined focus on the risk of each trade with a weekly investment horizon, and accepting intelligent losses when risk events occur.”
We thank you for your continued support.
Sincerely,
Sam DeKinder, Kevin Ellis
Greg Brennan
Don Trotter
sdekinder@horsecovepartners.com
kellis@horsecovepartners.com
gbrennan@horsecovepartners.com
dtrotter@horsecovepartners.com
Horse Cove Partners LLC
1899 Powers Ferry RD SE
Suite 120
Atlanta, GA 30339
678-905-5723 main
1Net estimate on a consolidated basis of similar accounts as of 12.31.22, which is preliminary and subject to revision. Performance estimates described herein as “YTD” are net of fees and expenses including a 2% per year management fee and 20% incentive fee and assume investors have been invested the entire time with no withdrawals. Individual account returns may vary depending on cash flows, the time period assets are invested, and restrictions placed on the account.
This was prepared by Horse Cove Partners LLC a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. Additional information about our firm is also available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. You can view the firm’s information on this website by searching for our firm name.
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Internet communications are not secure and subject to possible data corruption, either accidentally or on purpose, and may contain viruses. The content of this message should not be construed as investment advice unless explicitly stated as such in the text of this message. Further, this message should not be construed as the solicitation of an offer to purchase or an offer to sell any securities or other financial instruments, including, without limitation, interest in any private investment managed by Horse Cove Partners LLC or any of its affiliated entities.
This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. Strategies shown are speculative, involve a high degree of risk, and are designed for sophisticated investors.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. The information herein was obtained from third-party sources. Horse Cove does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. All information is given as of the date indicated and is believed to be reliable. Performance results are estimates pending verification. The returns are based on the Investment Manager's strategy and the compilation of actual client account trades. The Horse Cove Absolute Return and IRA Return strategies seek to extract absolute returns from the market by trading short volatility option spreads. The Enhanced Yield strategy seeks to achieve a targeted return trading only puts with a high probability of success.
The strategies reflect the deduction of advisory fees and any other expenses that a client would have paid or actually paid. The S&P 500 Index is used for comparative purposes only. The volatility of an index is materially different from that of the model portfolio. The S&P 500 refers to the Standard and Poor's 500 Index which is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure the performance of the broad domestic stock market. The VIX (CBOE volatility index) is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward-looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge." Investors cannot invest directly in an index. An index does not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, and no such fees or expenses were deducted from the performance shown. Options trading entails a high level of risk. The models do not include the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains because options don't pay dividends. Please read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options available from the Options Clearing Corporation website: http://www.optionsclearing.com for further details.
